Preview: Italy v Scotland

Two teams searching for a first win of the 2020 Guinness Six Nations do battle on Saturday, as Gregor Townsend leads Scotland into Rome for what is sure to be a gladiatorial match-up with Italy.

In a Championship of such fine margins, Scotland can perhaps feel unfortunate. They eventually succumbed to defeat in Ireland, despite outplaying their hosts for much of the contest, before losing to England in treacherous conditions at BT Murrayfield.

The margin was seven points on both occasions, meaning they already have two losing bonus points to their name.

Townsend has made three changes to the side which lost the Calcutta Cup to England last time out, with Gloucester’s Chris Harris replacing Huw Jones at outside centre.

Edinburgh second row Ben Toolis comes into the XV in place of the injured Jonny Gray, while Fraser Brown is replaced by Stuart McInally at hooker.

The form guide does not read well for Italy either, who have shipped 77 points in their opening two matches against Wales and France.

New Azzurri head coach Franco Smith has kept faith with the same starting line-up that were beaten in Paris two weeks ago, with Alessandro Zanni being declared fully fit.

While Italy have a healthy record against Scotland in Rome – winning five of the ten matches there in the Six Nations era – they have lost their previous three contests against Townsend’s side in the Italian capital.

Can the Azzurri claim a first Guinness Six Nations victory of the 2020 Championship?

WHAT THEY SAID

Italy head coach Franco Smith: “We showed improvements against France. We want to produce an impressive performance in front of our fans at the Stadio Olimpico, showing everyone our game and our true potential.

“We are focused on what we want to do on the field and how to use the next three games of the Championship to build our group – it doesn’t matter what the Scottish clubs are doing compared to the Italian ones in the PRO14.

“Each game is a chance to increase our skills, we have been working together for a month to build our identity, our DNA. It is the most important aspect we are focused on. We think about us and what we have to do.”

Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend: “We believe Chris [Harris] and Stuart [McInally] deserve this opportunity. They were very close to the starting XV when we entered this campaign. We think this is the right time for them to come in.

“Chris has been excellent for Gloucester this season and has continued to make improvements since the summer. He works very hard on both sides of the ball, which will be important this week.

“Stuart [McInally] has shown over the past few weeks he’s back to full fitness and is raring to go and Ben [Toolis] gets an opportunity to start following Jonny’s injury against England.

“Second row is a position we have a lot of competition with a number of very good players available for selection. We’re looking forward to seeing how he combines again with Scott [Cummings] after a successful outing together against Russia in the World Cup.”

KEY BATTLE – THE FLY-HALVES

In last year’s Championship, Scotland were the joint-second highest try scorers, averaging just shy of three dot downs per game.

That’s why it comes as a surprise that Scotland have failed to find their rhythm thus far – albeit the unfavourable conditions against England were not helpful.

Integral to Townsend’s style of play is the pivot that his fly-half provides.

This role belongs to Adam Hastings, who has displayed plenty of promise in a Glasgow Warriors jersey – much like his father and uncle, Gavin and Scott, once did.

Can Hastings provide the kind of dynamism Scotland require? If history is a marker, then contests between Scotland and Italy always excel in entertainment value.

At No.10 for the Azzurri is Tommaso Allan, who will earn his 54th cap at the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday, despite being just 26 years old.

Italy’s third highest points-scorer scored a cracker two years ago against Scotland at the same ground and has had a decent showing so far this Championship.

Which playmaker will be able to muster up the tempo each team are eager to implement?

STATS – POWERED BY AWS

• Italy and Scotland have won five games apiece in Rome during the Guinness Six Nations era; however, Scotland have won each of the last three meetings. That run immediately followed a string of three consecutive Italian home victories.
• Italy have the quickest ruck speed in the entire Guinness Six Nations, as no team is quicker clearing their own rucks than the Azzurri, who do so at an average speed of 2.91 seconds.
• Italy hold a major advantage at the lineout, boasting a 91.7% win rate from the set-piece, while Scotland’s 67.9% win rate from the lineout is the worst in the Championship, albeit not helped by the incredibly difficult conditions in their last match against England at BT Murrayfield.
• Scotland have completed 93.3% of their tackle attempts – the highest percentage in the 2020 Guinness Six Nations – while also boasting the highest dominant tackle share (13%) and allowing the fewest tackle breaks (4) in the competition thus far.

FANTASY WATCH

Matteo Minozzi’s move to the wing against France didn’t affect his free-running play in the slightest, as the Wasps man collected further points to take him top in terms of fantasy points for Italy. While he is on the expensive side at 15 stars, the 23-year-old looks like a decent investment.

Blindside flanker Jake Polledri (13.1 stars) has also been popular among players, and it’s not hard to see why. The hard-hitting Gloucester player scored just shy of 50 points in Round 2. Can he continue his good form?

While Stuart Hogg might have had a couple of results to forget as Scotland captain, his try-scoring return at Exeter Chiefs last week turned a few heads. Yes he’s 14.7 stars, but a number of Hogg’s finest tries in a Scotland jersey have come against Italy.

Chris Harris might be worth a punt, too. The outside centre has been drafted into the XV and if the game opens up, there’s no better area to attack than down the No. 13 channel. He’s a bargain at 11.7 stars and could provide plenty of value.

TEAMS

Italy XV: 15. Jayden Hayward (Benetton Rugby), 14. Mattia Bellini (Zebre Rugby Club), 13. Luca Morisi (Benetton Rugby), 12. Carlo Canna (Zebre Rugby Club), 11. Matteo Minozzi (Wasps Rugby), 10. Tommaso Allan (Benetton Rugby), 9. Callum Braley (Gloucester Rugby), 1. Andrea Lovotti (Zebre Rugby Club), 2. Luca Bigi (Zebre Rugby Club) (c), 3. Giosuè Zilocchi (Zebre Rugby Club), 4. Alessandro Zanni (Benetton Rugby), 5. Niccolò Cannone (Argos Petrarca Rugby/Benetton Rugby), 6. Jake Polledri (Gloucester Rugby), 7. Sebastian Negri (Benetton Rugby), 8. Abraham Steyn (Benetton Rugby)

Replacements: 16. Federico Zani (Benetton Rugby), 17. Danilo Fischetti (Zebre Rugby Club), 18. Marco Riccioni (Benetton Rugby), 19. Marco Lazzaroni (Benetton Rugby), 20. Dean Budd (Benetton Rugby), 21. Giovanni Licata (Zebre Rugby Club), 22. Guglielmo Palazzani (Zebre Rugby Club), 23. Giulio Bisegni (Zebre Rugby Club)

Scotland XV: 15. Stuart Hogg (Exeter Chiefs) (c), 14. Sean Maitland (Saracens), 13. Chris Harris (Gloucester), 12. Sam Johnson (Glasgow Warriors), 11. Blair Kinghorn (Edinburgh), 10. Adam Hastings (Glasgow Warriors), 9. Ali Price (Glasgow Warriors), 1. Rory Sutherland (Edinburgh), 2. Stuart McInally (Edinburgh), 3. Zander Fagerson (Glasgow Warriors), 4. Ben Toolis (Edinburgh), 5. Scott Cummings (Glasgow Warriors), 6. Jamie Ritchie (Edinburgh), 7. Hamish Watson (Edinburgh), 8. Magnus Bradbury (Edinburgh)

Replacements: 16. Fraser Brown (Glasgow Warriors), 17. Allan Dell (London Irish), 18. Willem Nel (Edinburgh), 19. Grant Gilchrist (Edinburgh), 20. Matt Fagerson (Glasgow Warriors), 21. George Horne (Glasgow Warriors), 22. Rory Hutchinson (Northampton Saints), 23. Byron McGuigan (Sale Sharks)

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Source: 6 Nations